The Peak-Oil Demand Mirage - Why Upstream Investment Needs To Be Sustained During this Decade
Tuesday, 5 May
Room 306
Keynote Speaker Series
In their recent report, “Upstream Oil and Gas Investment Outlook”, by the International Energy Forum and S&P Global Commodity Insights, have highlighted the importance of sustained upstream oil and gas investment to avoid severe supply shocks, price volatility, and threats to energy security during this decade. Despite rising investment in renewable energy, global demand for oil and gas is projected to remain high for the foreseeable future, particularly in developing economies. Upstream investments are needed to offset natural decline rates in existing fields and develop new resources. Oil and gas annual upstream capital expenditures rose by $63 billion year-on-year in 2023 and are expected to rise a further $26 billion in 2024, surpassing $600 billion for the first time in a decade. Upstream investment in 2024 is expected to be more than double 2020’s low of $300 billion and be well above 2015-2019 levels of ~$425 billion. More than a third of the spending will come from North America this year. Annual upstream investment will need to increase by $135 billion to a total of $738 billion by 2030 to ensure adequate supplies. More than 60% of the increase in upstream capex spent between now and 2030 will come from the Americas. In this keynote, Dr. Kamel Ben Naceur, Chairman of DAMORPHE, current member of the US National Petroleum Council, for 2024 – 2025, His Excellency, former Minister of Industry, Energy and Mines of Tunisia, former President of SPE 2022-2023, former Director for Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks at the International Energy Agency (IEA), where his teams led the Agency’s Energy Technology Perspectives and the World Energy Outlook, as well as roadmaps for sustainable energy systems, ahead of the Paris Conference of Parties, discusses importance of increased investment to support energy security and the energy transition. His talk will establish building blocks for an equitable energy transition stemming from a foundation of energy security. It will also encompass the consequences of "disorderly" transitions: price shocks, shortages, disruptions, political backlash, bitter divisions, and conflict. To close he will highlight the need of ensuring adequate investment levels which can help provide stability and enable a just transition, additionally requiring the market to remain nimble and flexible to overcome potential hurdles and adapt to new realities.
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